Belarus Security Update – 18 – 24 March 2024

BLUF

The Belarusian Armed Forces’ overall stance remained unchanged last week. Nonetheless, elements of a Belarusian mechanised brigade continued to be positioned near the Lithuanian border area as part of ongoing combat readiness inspection.

Executive summary

The ongoing combat readiness of the Belarusian Armed Forces dominated the political-military situation in Belarus.

Nevertheless, it’s crucial to emphasise that the deployed forces lacked the capabilities to pose a serious military threat to NATO members. Secondly, it was the second exercise of its type since 2023, while the deployment location of the unit probably reflected its wartime role.

It is also worth noting that the last seven days witnessed other events that may have been less visible in the media. These included personal reshuffles among Belarusian generals, another visit of high-rank Belarusian military representatives to Cuba, and the acquisition of new military equipment.

While the training activities were primarily centred around the ongoing readiness inspection, separate training events, often centralised, also occurred. Furthermore, there was an increase in the activity of the Russian Aerospace Forces’ air assets.

Overall, hardly any activity was observed among the members of the Wagner PMC who remained in Belarus last week. However, there were indications that they might have taken part in training Belarusian reservists.

Political developments

21MAR2024 – Personnel changes in the Belarusian Armed Forces

During the last week, two personnel changes were reported. Both pertained to shifts within the Belarusian Military Academy (BMA).

On Thursday (21MAR), Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko relieved the Head of the General Staff Faculty, Maj. Gen. Igor Demidenko from his position. Demidenko, who previously served as the Commander of the Western Operational Command (OC), occupied this position since 03MAY2023, when he replaced Col. Vladimir Bely (now Major General), currently in charge of the Western OC forces. According to the official statement, Demidenko was seconded to the State Secretariat of the Belarusian State Security Council. Although reasons behind such a decision were not provided, Demidenko remains officially listed as a general of the Belarusian MoD.

On the same day (21MAR), the Head of the BMA, Maj. Gen. Gennady Lepeshko became a member of the Belarusian House of Representatives member.

It is also worth adding that a day earlier (20MAR), the Head of the Belarusian MoD, Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin, participated in the session of the Belarusian National Assembly about the new draft law “On changing laws on the issues of ensuring national security”.

During the event, Khrenin spoke about the new project prepared by the Belarusian MoD and other state bodies, which offered adjustments for 12 other laws – including laws “On Defence”, “On Military Duty and Military Service”, as well as the law regulating the issues of martial law (“On Martial Law”). Officially, its provisions would improve the system of military registration and simplify the procedure of medical examinations for conscripts. As mentioned, the document would also modify the age requirement for initial admission to military registration, increasing it from 16 to 17 years, and clarify the list of reasons for deferment from conscription (mobilisation).

Military developments

18-22MAR2024 – The general activity of the Belarusian military officials

Apart from the involvement of Belarusian Armed Forces’ high-ranking officials in the ongoing readiness check, the visit to Cuba was the most notable event of the past week.

It officially started on Monday (18MAR), when the Belarusian delegation headed by the Chief of General Staff, Maj. Gen. Viktor Gulevich visited the Cacahual Mausoleum jointly with the local Deputy Minister of Defence Army Corps, Gen. Roberto Legra Sotolongo. On Tuesday (19MAR), its participants laid flowers near the monument of Soviet soldiers and planted a tree as a symbol of friendship between Belarus and Cuba. The third day (20MAR) included bilateral negotiations with the Cuban Minister of Defence, Army Corps Gen. Alvaro Lopez Miera and the abovementioned Deputy Minister of Defence. Afterwards, Miera decorated Gulevich with a Cuban state award – the Order of Antonia Maceo.

Moving to the actions of Belarusian military officials, on Wednesday (20MAR), Belarusian Special Operation Forces (SOF) Commander, Maj. Gen. Vadim Denisenko handed new weapons to the Belarusian SOF formations. It pertains to several Russian-made REM-KL evacuation vehicles and MTO-UB1 battalion-level maintenance workshops handed over to the 38th Air Assault and 103rd Airborne Brigades.

Touching on the subject of military equipment, on Friday (22MAR), the Belarusian Hajun team informed about the plans of the Belarusian MoD to acquire 13 sets of Supercam S350 UAVs (or their analogues) in 2024. Based on earlier statements provided by the Chief of Missile Forces and Artillery, Col. Ruslan Chekhov, it seems likely that new UAVs would reinforce artillery brigades of each operational command (111th and 231st).

Military exercises

18-24MAR2024 – The combat readiness check of the Belarusian Armed Forces

Throughout last week, the Belarusian Armed Forces continued the combat readiness check. Its most distinguishing feature was its scale, as around 5,000 reservists were called up, which means that the 19th Mechanised Brigade’s manning was likely increased to the wartime level.

On Monday (18MAR), the Belarusian MoD directly confirmed that other reserve service members’ training classes organised outside of the 19th Mechanised Brigade (main exercise participant) were held as a part of the inspection. Officially, their participants underwent training at eight locations (mainly at the Lepelsky Training Ground) supervised by instructors who recently trained in Russia. Nevertheless, it is essential to remember that not all reservists were sent to the 19th Mechanised Brigade, especially since the Belarusian Armed Forces organised Territorial Defence Forces (TDF) inspection in Gomel Oblast and the Voronovsky region simultaneously.

On Monday (18MAR), an unspecified subunit of the 19th Mechanised Brigade (likely 1st Mechanised Battalion reinforced with tanks of the 4th Tank Battalion) moved from the concentration area in the Osmyany region directly to a combat position to execute combat training measures. Members of the Belarusian Hajun team geolocalised the video published by the Belarusian MoD. They noticed that soldiers of the formation organised a checkpoint (reinforced with a T-72 and BMP-2) on the M7 highway about ten kilometres from the Lithuanian border (Kamenny Log – Myadininkai checkpoint). Simultaneously, other elements were involved in special-tactical, tactical-medical, engineering, and technical training classes in the rear. According to available data, forces of the 40th Mechanised Battalion left their home garrison on the same day.

For the next few days, some service members of the 19th Mechanised Brigade remained near the border area while some other personnel continued to withdraw military equipment from storage. On Friday (22MAR), the “first group” jointly with the State Border Committee service members trained in guarding and searching actions at the organised checkpoints. Moreover, the Deputy Commander of the 19th Mechanised Brigade for Armaments, Col. Andrey Shchur, informed that the formation had finished the removal of military equipment (T-72 tanks, BMP-2 IFVs and BRDM-2 reconnaissance vehicles) from storage and begun its technical inspection before departing from the home garrison.

It is also essential to note that the inspection likely engaged other military (sub)units. On Tuesday (19MAR), an MLRS battalion of the 350th Artillery Group, a heavy artillery battalion of the 111th Artillery Brigade and a mortar battery of the 841st Artillery Group, as well as the 202nd Mechanised Battalion also commenced their activities.

A day later (20MAR), the column of 11 BM-21 Grad launchers, six command-staff vehicles, a truck, and a UAZ (abovementioned MLRS battalion) departed from Gozhsky Training Ground to Slonim. Moreover, on Thursday (21MAR), the Belarusian Hajun team noted the formation of the military echelon consisting of military equipment of the 202nd Mechanised Battalion at the Poreche Railway Station, which suggested that it was also about to leave the same training ground located in the vicinity of Lithuanian border.

Between Wednesday (20MAR) and Friday (22MAR), the Brest Oblast Military Commissariat held joint mobilisation training during the inspection.

Moreover, on Thursday (21MAR), the Belarusian MoD confirmed the participation of the Special Purpose Detachment of the 432nd Main Military Clinical Medical Center. Three days later (24MAR), a subunit reinforced with reservists arrived at the Lepelsky Training Ground,  where it deployed a field hospital with 30 beds. According to its officer, Lt. Col. Gennady Tsyganchuk, the hospital included its laboratory and ultrasound machine.

Also, on Thursday (21MAR), the official statement provided by the Belarusian Ministry of Defence indirectly suggested that other ongoing field exits of formations (units) subordinated to the Air Force and Air Defence Forces (AFADF) Command were held as a part of the inspection. Based on the provided materials, at least a single unspecified Buk battery of the most likely 120th Air Defence Brigade simultaneously started participating in the check.

Later in the week, no additional data about the exercise appeared. However, considering the statements of the 19th Mechanised Brigade Commander, Col. Alexey Chernukha (who notably possibly has close family ties with Ukraine), it is clear that shortly, the formation would participate in the brigade-level tactical exercise under the Commander of North-Western OC. Interestingly, according to the members of the Belarusian Hajun team, it can occur in the Postavsky region.

18-24MAR2024 – The training activity of the Western Operational Command

Over the past seven days, the training activities of the Western Operational Command forces were centralised in their nature.

From Monday (18MAR) to Saturday (23MAR), personnel of anti-air subunits and engineering-sapper battalions had an opportunity to participate in training gatherings at the Domanovo and Gozhsky Training Grounds, respectively.

The first event engaged service members of the 147th Air Defence Regiment and anti-air subunits of the 6th and 11th Mechanised Brigades. They underwent firing training with their main anti-air systems and participated in fire training and grenade-throwing classes. During the latter, soldiers of the mechanised brigades and 557th Engineering Brigade practised engineering reconnaissance and preparation of platoon-level strongholds and trained in demolishing various objects with explosives.

On Wednesday (20MAR), the Western OC organised another contest for the best UAV crew of the command. It was won by soldiers representing the 11th Mechanised Brigade, which hosted the event. Between Thursday (21MAR) and Friday (22MAR), snipers of the formations subordinated to the command also had an opportunity to participate in the centralised competition for the Western OC’s best sniper and sniper pair.

Besides, on Monday (18MAR), the 2S1 battalion of the 350th Artillery Group (6th Mechanised Brigade) started a two-day-long battery-level tactical exercise. During its course, special attention was paid to the issues of counter-battery fire, redeployment of own subunits, and using UAVs.

Four days later (22MAR), service members of the 22nd Spetsnaz Company took part in joint training classes (likely focused on fire training) with members of the Belarusian SOBR (Special Rapid Response Unit of the Internal Affairs Ministry).

On Sunday (24MAR), subunits of the 74th Communications Regiment left their home garrison and started special-tactical exercise under the Chief of Communications.

19-20MAR2024 – The training activity of the Air Force and Air Defence Forces

Last week, the training efforts of forces subordinated to the Air Force and Air Defence Forces Command were mainly focused on the air defence formations (units). Aside from the abovementioned 120th Air Defence Brigade, other elements were also involved in training activities.

On Tuesday (19MAR), forces of the 2nd Air Defence Battalion (1st Air Defence Regiment) remained outside their home garrison and continued their exit to an unspecified location.

A day later (20MAR), at least a single S-300 battery of the 15th Air Defence Regiment was also involved in the drills. Simultaneously, service members of the 115th Air Defence Regiment took part in the combat training classes at the Brestsky Training Ground. At the same time, elements of the 56th Communications Regiment independently participated in the special-tactical exercise.

It should be added that on the same day (20MAR), the Belarusian Air Force presented significant activity, as all its air bases hosted training flights, presumably engaging all their air asset types. On Friday (22MAR), at least a single Mi-24 helicopter (50th Mixed Aviation Base) was involved in Belarusian border patrolling.

19-22MAR2024 – The training activity of the centrally subordinated formations

Last week, it was possible to observe an increase in the training activity of the formations (units) of central subordination. It cannot be ruled out that it resulted from their “indirect” participation in the combat readiness check. However, such a claim still requires additional confirmation.

Between Tuesday (19MAR) and Thursday (21MAR), forces of the 36th Road and Bridge Brigade were involved in a series of special-tactical training classes and exercises.

On Wednesday (20MAR), the heavy artillery battalion of the 51st Artillery Brigade underwent a tactical exercise held under the formation’s commander. According to available data, it likely lasted for two days. Also, the 127th Communications Brigade soldiers participated in Makarov pistol firing classes.

Two days later (22MAR), personnel of the same formation (precisely communications battalion) underwent special-tactical training classes.

Speaking about the centralised training events, early in the week (possibly 18MAR or 19MAR), another group of presumably about 60 Belarusian soldiers departed to train in the Russian 333rd Combat Training Center. According to the Belarusian Hajun team, they likely departed using an Il-76 aircraft (EW-005DE).

19-22MAR2024 – The training activity of the Belarusian SOF

For another consecutive week, the forces of the 103rd Airborne Brigade demonstrated the highest level of training activity among formations of the Belarusian SOF. However, it should be pointed out that the general activity of the component was relatively low.

On Thursday (21MAR), the Losvido Training Ground hosted a battalion-level tactical exercise with live ammo firing of the mentioned formation. A day later (22MAR), the 103rd Airborne Brigade soldiers underwent firing classes at the exact location.

Moving to the other SOF formations, it is possible to point out fire training classes of the 5th Spetsnaz Brigade that occurred on Thursday (21MAR), as well as BTR-82A and Kayman vehicle driving drills held two days earlier (19MAR). The latter happened at the Brestsky Training Ground and included crossing the water obstacles.

21-23MAR2024 – The training activity of the North-Western Operational Command

Regarding the North-Western Operational Command training efforts, it is possible to point out three training events aside from the Belarusian Armed Forces readiness inspection.

On Thursday (21MAR), an unspecified tank battalion of likely 120th Mechanised Brigade battalion was involved in complex tactical classes with live ammo firing at the 227th Combined Arms Training Ground. Notably, firing was carried out from closed firing positions at ranges up to 10,000 metres.

Simultaneously, 7th Engineering Regiment service members organised a water crossing over the Berezina River in an unspecified location for the special-tactical training classes.

At least since Friday (22MAR), selected artillery subunits (2A65 Msta-B, BM-21 Grad and BM-27 Uragan) of the command participated in a centralised training gathering held at the Osipovichi Training Ground.

11-17MAR2024 – Noteworthy movements of Belarusian military equipment

Last week, it was possible to observe several noteworthy movements of Belarusian Armed Forces military equipment.

Thursday (21MAR):

Friday (22MAR):

  • Four Ural trucks were moving in Minsk;

Saturday (23MAR):

  • Six MAZ-5316 fuel trucks were moving on Minsk’s MKAD.

Moreover, on Sunday (24MAR), the Belarusian Hajun team noted the movement of a military echelon with at least four 2S1 Gvozdika SPHs, three 2S6 Tunguska anti-air systems, as well as seven MT-LBs, a single PU-12 and six trucks moving from Pomyslishche Railway Station towards Zabalatssie. It can’t be ruled out that it was an indicator of the field exit of the 120th Mechanised Brigade subunits.

Russian military activity in Belarus

The previous week, the Russian military activity in Belarus was mainly noticeable in the air space.

Between Wednesday (20MAR) and Friday (22MAR), Russian An-26KPA (RF-93998) was flying from  Machulischy Air Base to Gomel Airport daily. Moreover, on Thursday (21MAR), Russian Su-24 aircraft conducted an unspecified number of flights from Baranovichi Air Base. Considering the recent unofficial data, it can’t be ruled out that the aircraft was directly responsible for providing radiotechnical data for the needs of the Belarusian Armed Forces during their readiness inspection. The An-26KPA  departed back to Russia on Saturday (23MAR).

Wagner PMC activity in Belarus

Over the past seven days, Wagner PMC mercenaries remaining in Belarus displayed no significant activity.

However, it should be added that on Friday (22MAR), the Belarusian Hajun team informed that they could participate in the training of Belarusian reserve service members at the Lepelsky Training Ground. This information remains unverified.

Comment

  • Despite the overall scale of the Belarusian Armed Forces’ readiness inspection, it appears that the 19th Mechanised Brigade deployed a single reinforced mechanised battalion equipped with BMP-2 IFVs to the border with Lithuania.
  • At the same time, although the inspection involved artillery subunits of the Western Operational Command and elements of the 6th Mechanised Brigade, because their deployment areas were scattered across at least four locations – border area, as well as Lepelsky, Gozhsky and Osipovichi Training Grounds, the drill did not pose a military threat to the Baltic States.
  • Belarusian exercise could be considered a “deterrence measure” against NATO forces, which recently participated in the CRYSTAL ARROW exercise (04-15MAR), likely held at the Lithuanian Nemenčinė and Parabande Training Ground.
  • Nevertheless, it is worth emphasising the comprehensive nature of the exercise, which synchronised the full expansion of the mechanised brigade’s manning level to wartime strength, TDF inspections, and mobilisation training exercises of certain military commissariats.
  • The mobilisational development of the 19th Mechanised Brigade may herald a brigade-level tactical exercise close to the Lithuanian and Latvian borders. If this occurs, additional brigade subunits and elements of the formations (units) that did not start to participate in the inspection may appear in this area.