Belarus Security Update – 27 November – 3 December 2023
BLUF
Last week delivered no major changes regarding the general posture of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
Executive summary
Over the past seven days, representatives of the Belarusian military-political leadership presented rather mediocre activity.
Belarus adopted a joint Russo-Belarusian program regulating the issues of military cooperation as a part of the Union State.
Regarding internal military developments, Belarusian ground components received new military equipment, while some Belarusian military officials were involved in international military cooperation activities.
Notably, the Belarusian Armed Forces also started a new military academic year, involving some military representatives and affecting the training tempo of military formations.
The elements of the Russian Armed Forces deployed in Belarus demonstrated minimal activity. Conversely, mercenaries of the Wagner PMC participated in joint actions with the subunits of the Belarusian Internal Troops. It can’t be ruled out that some of Wagner’s troops departed to Africa.
Political developments
29NOV2023 – The implementation of the Union State program
On Wednesday (29NOV), the Belarusian National Legal Internet Portal published a draft document on the approval of the Union State program linked to the modernisation of logistic objects for the needs of the Union State in the 2023-2027 period.
The exact text of the actual program was, however, not published. However, the work will pertain to the modernisation of logistics facilities used by Union State forces. This, in essence, could mean all logistics (and support bases) located in Belarus. The draft was signed by the Belarusian Prime Minister, Roman Golovchenko and approved by the Belarusian Council of Ministers. It obliged the Belarusian Ministry of Defence (MoD) to submit the draft for consideration by the Council of Ministers of the Union State.
In NOV23, the Head of the Department of Finance and Budget Policy of the Standing Committee of the Union State, Natalya Polukarova, claimed that the program’s financing would start in 2024.
In 2018-2021, both countries pursued a similar program related to military infrastructure facilities. It sought to overhaul an air force and air defence forces command post and to conduct infrastructure repairs in almost 70 military objects (air bases, storage bases and other rear facilities). Russia covered 65 per cent of the costs linked to this programme.
Military developments
27-29NOV2023 – The international activity of the Belarusian military officials
Over the past seven days, some Belarusian Armed Forces representatives either actively participated in military diplomacy or commented on the current political-military situation around the state.
On Monday (27NOV), the Secretary of the Belarusian State Security Council, Lt. Gen. Alexander Volfovich, briefly spoke about the security developments around Belarus. He asserted that NATO countries would refrain from initiating military aggression against Belarus because of Minsk’s strategic partnership with Moscow. Volfovich emphasised that such an action would be deemed “unwise and inexpedient,” pointing out that Poland and the Baltic States were aware of this fact.
Nevertheless, the Secretary of the State Security Council referred to the ongoing “militarisation” of both countries, noting that the continuous process of increasing combat capabilities of their armed forces did not indicate peaceful intentions.
Subsequently (27NOV), the Head of the International Military Cooperation Department (IMCD), Col. Valery Revenko, informed about the departure of the Belarusian Armed Forces delegation to Cuba. The visit sought to develop military bilateral relations. A day later (28NOV) provided more details about the visit, adding that it had involved five officers, including the Chief of Missile Forces and Artillery, Col. Ruslan Chekhov.
In Havana, the Belarusian delegation met with seven Cuban senior officers and approved the drafts linked to the joint military cooperation and bilateral activities for 2024. Subsequently, they met with the Chief of Cuban General Staff, Army Corps General Roberto Legra Sotolongo and visited a tank division and air defence brigade of Cuba’s western military district.
27NOV-1DEC2023 – The personal changes and autumn conscription
Over the past seven days, more noteworthy data related to the induction of autumn conscripts appeared. Throughout the week, conscripts who took their military oath recently were introduced to their military formations (units).
On Monday (27NOV), the Belarusian Hajun military monitoring team provided an updated number of autumn conscripts. They claimed that at least 10,221 personnel took their military oath on 25NOV, instead of officially announced the 8,000+ figure.
As noted, this difference likely resulted from the fact that about 2,000 conscripts chose an alternative service – instead of undergoing “standard conscription”, they started a fixed-term contract service for two years.
Some 200 personnel were sent to reserves.
The Hajun argued that Belarus inducted some 12,000+ personnel, compared to 10,200 the state media mentioned.
There has also been a substantial increase (40 per cent) in the number of conscripts who chose to serve within the Belarusian State Border Committee.
Chart 1. The number of conscripts who chose to serve in the Belarusian Border Service between spring 2011 and autumn 2023 (Source: Motolko)
Military oath ceremonies continued last week and occurred in the following formations:
Monday (27NOV):
- 19th Mechanised Brigade (certain subunits);
- 111th Artillery Brigade;
Tuesday (28NOV):
- 191st Artillery Group (19th Mechanised Brigade);
Wednesday (29NOV):
- 5th Spetsnaz Brigade;
- 48th Electronic Warfare Battalion;
- 339th Mechanised Battalion (120th Mechanised Brigade);
Thursday (30NOV):
- 38th Air Assault Brigade;
- 103rd Airborne Brigade;
- 19th Mechanised Brigade (certain subunits);
- 50th Mixed Aviation Base;
- 377th Air Defence Regiment;
Friday (1DEC):
- 310th Artillery Group (120th Mechanised Brigade);
- 1052nd Radiotechnical Battalion (49th Radiotechnical Brigade);
- Minsk Military Commandant’s Office;
On Monday (27NOV), soldiers of the 5th Spetsnaz Brigade officially farewelled the commander of the formation, Col. Alexey Khuzyakhmetov. He led the unit since DEC20 and proved to be “a competent and principled commander”.
Recently, he was admitted to the General Staff Faculty at the Belarusian Military Academy. It is unclear who will replace Col. Khuzyakhmetov yet.
28NOV-1DEC2023 – New equipment and infrastructure of the Belarusian Armed Forces
Last week, the Belarusian Armed Forces received a new bath of communications equipment and UAVs. New data related to the creation of the military infrastructure also appeared.
On Monday (28NOV), the already quoted Belarusian Hajun team noted new procurement data confirming the ongoing construction of a military camp in the Gomel region (area of Novaya Buda village). The document dated 16OCT stipulates that the first phase of construction would be finished by 15DEC at a cost of 362,684.58 BYN (~110.000 USD). The work involves terrain preparation for the building of a military base.
The base will likely form a part of the emerging Southern Operational Command (SOC). But it also highlights the overall slow pace of introducing the new organisational changes. The decision to establish SOC was announced in MAY22, and since that time, no major infrastructure work has been observed to have occurred in southern Belarus.
Regarding procurement, on Tuesday (28NOV) at the 619th Communications Equipment Maintenance, Storage and Disposal Base, military personnel received 25 new or modernised (self-propelled) communication complexes, as well as more than 50 mobile systems (radio stations and special communications systems, including satellite terminals) modernised (built) by specialists of the Belarusian Military-Industrial Committee.
According to the available materials, it seems that the Belarusian Armed Forces received modernised R-409-MB1 radio stations and other mobile complexes (Belarusian Starlink analogues?). Notably, the latter might even provide satellite communication and data related to the airspace situation down to a mechanised company level.
Image 1. A still from a video showing communication modes between a satellite, BMP-2K, and a company commander (?) (Source: Youtube)
According to the Belarusian Chief of Communications, Col. Vadim Romaniv, new and modernised communication equipment reinforced the tactical command level – battalions and brigades.
Three days later (1DEC), unofficial sources provided some data related to the progress of the Belarusian “Крылья” (wings) project. The project assumes that every Belarusian citizen can donate their quadcopter(s) to support the uniformed services in performing their tasks. The idea is directly correlated with recent legislation changes that practically banned the use of UAVs by civilians who don’t have special permission (the issue covered in BSU 25SEP-1OCT).
Belarusians reportedly had already given more than 50 UAVs with spare parts, some of which have been passed onto military units.
An interview with the Belarusian Deputy Commander of Air Force and Air Defence Forces (Chief of Aviation), Col. Leonid Davidovich, was published on Tuesday (28NOV). He praised the versatility of the Su-30SM fighters and highlighted the formidable equipment of the recently introduced Mi-35M helicopters. According to him, this equipment effectively destroyed a moving target (simulating tanks) during recent aviation drills.
Davidovich also briefly discussed modern air combat tactics, stressing the importance of achieving a balance between the quality and quantity of air assets.
Davidovich also pointed out the significance of flight hours and highlighted differences between Western and Eastern approaches to measuring it. In the United States, flight time is calculated from the moment the aircraft’s engine starts to when it is turned off, while in Russia and Belarus, it is measured from takeoff to landing – excluding ground rolling and other preparatory measures. Davidovich favoured the eastern approach for its accuracy in measuring actual flight time and also highlighted the intensity of Belarusian pilots’ training.
Lastly, The Deputy Commander of the Belarusian AFADF suggested that the upcoming deliveries of F-16 fighters to Ukraine might reveal that the aircraft is not as effective as expected, potentially influencing the procurement plans of other countries worldwide.
29NOV-1DEC2023 – The new military academic year of the Belarusian Armed Forces
On Friday (01DEC), the Belarusian Armed Forces officially started a new military academic year.
According to official statements, it will be focused on field training and based on the experiences of modern military conflicts.
Due to the start of the 2023/2024 year, most Belarusian military formations hosted solemn ceremonies. They usually engaged most of their servicemen, as well as leadership representatives.
Such events occurred in the following formations (units):
- Minsk Military Commandant’s Office;
- 72nd Joint Training Center;
- 11th Mechanised Brigade;
- 19th Mechanised Brigade;
- 120th Mechanised Brigade;
- 38th Air Assault Brigade;
- 103rd Airborne Brigade;
- 111th Artillery Brigade and 48th Electronic Warfare Battalion;
- 49th Radiotechnical Brigade;
- 61st Fighter Aviation Base;
- 116th Assault Aviation Base;
- 30th Railway Brigade;
- 815th Technical Support Center;
Notably, during the event held in the 38th Air Assault Brigade, the formation commander, Col. Dmitry Korshunov, informed that a reinforced battalion detach from the brigade would commence a two-month-long field exit on the following day.
The start of the academic year coincided with readiness reviews conducted within most (if not all) of the abovementioned units. Such events started on Tuesday (28NOV) and lasted until Thursday (30DEC).
Military exercises
27NOV-1DEC2023 – The training activity of the Belarusian Armed Forces
Over the past seven days, most training activities still engaged recently inducted conscripts. After their basic training (and military oath), they participated in control classes and exercises to assess their tactical and fire preparedness level.
On Monday and Tuesday (27-28NOV), personnel of the 74th Communications Regiment started such classes. They included tactical, engineering, topographic and medical drills.
On Tuesday (28NOV), analogical training actions started with the personnel of the 5th Spetsnaz and 120th Mechanised Brigades.
Two days later (30NOV), conscripted servicemen of the 56th Communications Regiment started their complex control classes.
Besides, soldiers of the 6th and 11th Mechanised Brigades and the 61st Fighter Aviation Base participated in training sessions related to military service safety.
A technical equipment inspection was held at the 377th Air Defence Regiment on Tuesday (28NOV), while the 50th Mixed Aviation Base (Machulischy) conducted training flights on Friday (1DEC). The latter involved Mi-8MTV5 transport, Mi-24 and Mi-35M helicopters and Il-76MD and Tu-134A-transport aircraft.
Also, on Friday (1DEC), the 227th Combined Arms Training Ground hosted practical exams of tank cadets of the Combined Arms Faculty (Belarusian Military Academy), who underwent driving exams.
27NOV-1DEC2023 – Noteworthy movements of Belarusian military equipment
Over the past seven days, no noteworthy movements of the Belarusian Armed Forces military equipment occurred.
Russian military activity in Belarus
Last week, the actions of the Russian Armed Forces were only observable on two days – Tuesday (27NOV) and Thursday (30NOV).
Initially (27NOV), a single Russian An-26 arrived at Lida Air Base. On Thursday (30NOV), unofficial sources reported an unspecified number of Russian fighter aircraft slights from Baranovichi Air Base. In addition, a single covered Kamaz truck (V-marked) was moving in Mazyr.
Wagner PMC activity in Belarus
Over the past seven days, more data related to the activity of the Wagner PMC mercenaries occurred.
On Monday (27NOV), the Telegram channel associated with Wagner PMC soldiers deployed in Belarus published several images from the recent fourth special-tactical training course of the Belarusian Internal Troops (IT). The drill mostly focused on small unit tactics (also in urban areas) and assumed active use of mortars and AGS-17 grenade launchers with the support of UAVs.
A day later (28NOV), the Belarusian Hajun team reported the arrival of a single Il-76 (RA-76463) at Bobruisk Airport. According to this source, the aircraft was likely associated with the Wagner PMC. Wagner’s base is still located in Tsel, some 60 km northwest of Bobruisk.
On Thursday (30NOV), Hajun suggested that the Il-76 might have been subsequently used to transport another batch of mercenaries to the Central African Republic.
A day later (1DEC), the mercenaries of the Wagner PMC participated in special-tactical classes of the Belarusian Internal Troops “Shtorm” Special Detachment at the Brestsky Training Ground.