Issue 4 – 28 August – 3 September 2023

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Key takeaways from last week’s developments

• Coastal defence missile battalions deployed to combat-training positions;
• Ground activities aimed at preparing the military personnel to participate in the Ukraine war;
• Field exercises conducted by support/supply units were held across the Baltic Fleet;
• The air component carried out a divisional-level exercise;
• NATO aircraft intercepted eight Russian aircraft;
• Live-firing exercises involved Parchim-class corvettes;
• Mozhaysk submarine underwent sea trials in the Baltic Sea.

Executive summary

Although the Ocean Shield 2023 naval exercise ended presumably on 21AUG, Russians continued the deployment of the Baltic Fleet’s ships in the North and Mediterranean Seas. Moreover, sea trials of a recently launched submarine were carried out in the Gotland Deep area – the third submarine that has recently undergone tests in the Baltic Sea. In addition, the Parchim-class corvettes carried out live-fire exercises on naval and air targets.

The activity of the air component involved one divisional-level exercise carried out by two aviation regiments, suggesting a significant decrease in the training tempo compared to the previous week.

On Monday, one of the missile battalions of a coastal defence system deployed to combat-training positions. We expect it to carry out electronic (simulated) missile launches in the next few days. Last week, just like the previous week, military personnel of the two main units of Baltic Fleet’s ground component carried out live-fire exercises. The number of troops and equipment involved suggests that those training were attended by soldiers who would shortly be deployed to Ukraine to strengthen the Russian groupings there. In addition, field exercises conducted by support/supply units were held across the Baltic Fleet.

Ground domain activities

The Baltic Fleet’s ground component conducted several training exercises last week. The Western Military District Press Service reported high activity across the two main Kaliningrad Oblast’s ground units – 11^th Army Corps (11^th AC) and 336^th Naval Infantry Brigade (336^th NIB). Moreover, a unit crucial to the Baltic Fleet’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, the 25^th Coastal Missile Brigade (25^th CMB), reportedly deployed to its combat training positions.

On Monday (28AUG), the Baltic Fleet’s highly mobile 3K60 Bal coastal defence systems left permanent deployment bases and moved towards combat training positions. The number of forces involved (100 military personnel and 20 pieces of special military equipment) suggests the deployment of two missile battalions. However, given that we assess that only one missile battalion is fielded within the 25^th CMB in the Kaliningrad Oblast, it is likely that the other subunit involved in the drill pertained to a missile battalion located in Kronstadt (Kotlin Island), most likely subordinated directly to the command of Leningrad Naval Base (LNB). We expect both missile battalions to carry out electronic (simulated) Kh-35 (SSC-6 ‘Sennight’) missile launches in the next few days. Images 2 and 3 show the missile battalions in its home bases (Donskoye and Kronstadt). Image 4 shows Donskoye’s battalion deployed to the combat training positions near Cape Taran (Kaliningrad Oblast)*.

*The images were taken in the 2020-2022 period. However, the areas of permanent deployment and combat training positions have not changed.

Figure 1. 25th Coastal Missile Brigade (Source: Rochan Consulting)

Image 1. Missile battalion in Kronstadt (LNB) (Source: Google Earth, 25JUL2022)

Image 2. Missile battalion (partially visible) in Donskoye (25th CMB) (Source: Google Earth, 11JAN2020)

Image 3. Missile battalion (partially visible) deployed to combat training positions near Cape Taran (25th CMB) (Source: Google Earth, 22MAY2020)

On Tuesday (29AUG), the 11^th AC’s engineering sub-units conducted a field exercise* to provide engineering support for battalion tactical groups (bTG). The main focus was laying minefields and creating passages using heavy engineering equipment. It is also very likely that sub-units from the 69^th Naval Engineering Regiment (69^th NER) took part in the exercise, as so far, we have observed the personnel from the 69^th NER operating in Ukraine as a part of a task group based on the 11^th AC. More than 100 soldiers and 30 pieces of special equipment participated in the training.

*The Russian military nomenclature uses the name of тактико-специальные занятия (ТСЗ), which translates directly as tactical-special exercises. This name is generally used for exercises of support units such as signal, reconnaissance, engineering, logistics, etc.

On Wednesday (30AUG), anti-sabotage drills were held across units subordinated to the Baltic Fleet (including ground, air and naval components). According to an official press release, each Baltic Fleet’s unit operated a unique formation (consisting of full-time military personnel) responsible for anti-sabotage activities, such as neutralisation of improvised explosive devices (IED), repelling unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) strikes and repulsing attacks of sabotage groups. The frequency of the anti-sabotage exercises has increased significantly since the invasion of Ukraine. More than 500 soldiers took part in the abovementioned training.

On Thursday (31AUG), 100 military personnel from 336^th NIB’s sub-units conducted an RPG-7 and BTR-82 (ten vehicles) live-firing exercise, including shooting from a 30 mm 2A72 automatic cannon and 7.62 mm PKT machine gun. On Saturday (02SEP), 200 troops from the 7^th Motorised Rifle Regiment (7^th MRR) conducted a similar activity. The number of personnel and equipment matches those involved in the live-fire exercise carried out the previous week (described in Issue 3). It is possible that the most recent drills were attended by soldiers who will shortly be deployed to Ukraine to strengthen the Russian groupings there (troops rotation and/or replacements) of the 336^th NIB and 11^th AC task groups currently operating in Zaporizhzhia Oblast/Donetsk Oblast (336^th NIB) and  Luhansk Oblast (11^th AC).

On Sunday (03SEP), the Western Military District Press Service reported the beginning of the logistics support tactical-special exercise conducted by the 702^nd Logistics Support Center (702^nd LSC). As a result of the Kaliningrad Oblast’s military logistics system reform, the Center ensures the functioning of most of the Baltic Fleet’s units by providing fuel, ammunition and other necessary supplies as well as maintenance services. The exercise will include deployment to the training areas (establishing command points and field camps), evacuating and repairing damaged vehicles and building pontoon crossings over water barriers. During the exercise, the 702^nd LSC will also provide logistics support to the navy component by loading ammunition and refuelling the Baltic Fleet’s vessels. The activities mentioned above suggest that the exercise will involve all of the separate battalions subordinate to the Center (29^th Vehicle Battalion, 66^th Maintenance-Evacuation Battalion, 405^th Road-Regulation Battalion), the navy sub-unit consisting of several auxiliary vessels such as floating workshops PM-30, PM-82 and PM-86 and the ammunition storage facilities operated by the 702^nd LSC. The exercise will last until 10SEP and involves 1,000 military personnel,100 vehicles, and special military equipment will participate in it.

Map 1. Ammunition storage facilities operated by the 702nd LSC in the Kaliningrad Oblast (Source: Rochan Consulting database)

Table 1. Summary of Baltic Fleet’s ground component activities carried out between 28AUG-03SEP

Air domain activities

Last week, the training activity of the Baltic Fleet’s air component was limited to just one exercise. But it was reportedly large in size and involved 15 airframes from both regiments subordinated to the 34^th Mixed Aviation Division (34^th MAD). Nevertheless, the drop in training tempo compared to the previous week was substantial.

Specifically, on Tuesday (29AUG), the Western Military District Press Service reported beginning a divisional-level exercise. Sukhoi Su-27 fighter aircraft from the 698^th Fighter Aviation Regiment (689^th FAR) conducted air combat training to practice offensive and defensive manoeuvres in a clash with simulated enemy aircraft. Naval aviation from the 4^th Mixed Aviation Regiment (4^th MAR) conducted air support training to practice destroying ground targets. Sukhoi Su-24, Sukhoi Su-30SM, and Sukhoi Su-30SM2 aircraft carried out simulated strikes on potential enemy manpower and equipment. About 15 Russian aircraft from both regiments are involved in the exercise.

Table 2. Summary of Baltic Fleet’s air component activities carried out between 28AUG-03SEP

The Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence reported eight Russian aircraft intercepted by forces conducting a NATO Air Policing Mission in the Baltic States between 28AUG-03SEP. The table below lists the interception details (reported interceptions match the exercise described above).

Table 3. Russian aircraft intercepted near the Baltic States borders between 28AUG-03SEP (Source: Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence)

Map 2. NATO Baltic Air Policing mission deployment since 03AUG2023 (Source: nato.int)

Chart 1. Number of intercepted Russian combat aircraft near the Baltic States borders in 2023 (NATO Baltic Air Policing mission) (Source: Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence)

Chart 2. Number of intercepted Russian transport aircraft near the Baltic States borders in 2023 (NATO Baltic Air Policing mission) (Source: Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence)

Chart 3. Number of intercepted Russian reconnaissance aircraft near the Baltic States borders in 2023 (NATO Baltic Air Policing mission) (Source: Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence)

Chart 4. Combined number of intercepted Russian aircraft near the Baltic States borders in 2023 (NATO Baltic Air Policing mission) (Source: Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence

Table 3. Monthly summary of the number of intercepted Russian aircraft near the Baltic States borders in 2023 (NATO Baltic Air Policing mission) (Source: Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence)

From the beginning of 2023, forces conducting a NATO Baltic Air Policing mission in the Baltic States intercepted 250 Russian aircraft.

Naval domain activities

The Baltic Fleet’s naval component conducted several training exercises last week, which suggested high activity across the Baltic Fleet’s naval bases – Baltyisk Naval Base (BNB) and LNB. The main focus was on anti-submarine warfare and the continuation of sea trials of another recently launched submarine.

On Monday (28AUG), two Parchim-class (Project 1331M) anti-submarine corvettes, Aleksin and Kabardino-Balkariia from the 64^th Sea Protection Ship Brigade (BNB), conducted a live-fire exercise on naval and air targets (76 mm AK-176M – naval target, 30 mm AK-630M – anti-aircraft). An unspecified number of Su-24 aircraft from the 4^th MAR assisted the corvettes by mocking aerial targets. On Tuesday (29AUG), Parchim-class (Project 1331M) anti-submarine corvette Kazanets from the 105^th Sea Protection Ship Brigade (LNB) carried out a similar exercise.

The Western Military District Press Service also reported the sea trials of the recently launched (27APR2023) Improved Kilo-class (Project 636.6) submarine Mozhaysk between 31AUG–03SEP. During the test, Mozhaysk conducted several dives to a depth of up to 190 meters. The submarine’s submerging depths suggest the exercise occurred in the Gotland Deep with the assistance of the Kashtan-class (Project 141C) rescue ship SS-750. Reports published over the last few weeks confirm that three submarines have undergone sea trials in the Baltic Sea (details shown in the table below).

Table 4. Russian submarines undergoing sea trials in the Baltic Sea

On Sunday (03AUG), the Baltic Fleet’s hydrographic survey sub-units began the exercise to check hydrographic vessels’ readiness to provide navigational and hydrometeorological support to the Baltic Fleet’s forces. About ten vessels will participate in the activity, presumably including the recently commissioned Project 19910 hydrographic survey ship Yakov Lapushkin.