Issue No 10 (10) 2025 – 25JUN-01JUL2025

Executive Summary

Between 23 and 30 June 2025, Ukraine’s defence effort was defined by sustained high-intensity combat across Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, with Russia
maintaining offensive momentum while adapting tactics to counter Ukrainian air defences. Ukrainian forces, despite leadership transitions and logistical challenges,
continued to demonstrate resilience through corps-based military reforms, targeted counterattacks, and a growing long-range strike campaign utilising drones and
missiles against Russian logistics and infrastructure.
Russia, reinforcing its long-war posture, escalated drone and missile production with support from Iran, North Korea, and China, and expanded recruitment
initiatives across occupied and domestic regions. Moscow intensified strikes on Ukraine’s energy and critical infrastructure to weaken its defensive capacity while
leveraging partnerships in Africa, the Middle East, and China to sustain its military-industrial base under sanctions pressure. At the same time, Russia maintained
a defensive stance toward NATO while signalling increased nuclear readiness and preparing for potential escalatory scenarios around Zapad-2025.
Across NATO’s eastern flank, frontline states advanced forward defence measures, emphasising multinational exercises, rapid infrastructure development, and
the integration of advanced systems such as Apache helicopters, FA-50 fighters, and HIMARS variants into national and NATO structures. The region continued to
institutionalise civil defence and prepare for contested logistics environments, while hybrid threats, including UAV incursions and GPS jamming, persisted along
NATO borders. These developments underscored a transition from symbolic deterrence to a scalable, layered defence posture, positioning the eastern flank for
potential contingencies linked to evolving Russian tactics ahead of Zapad-2025.
Key Watchpoints
1. Ukrainian Command Reform and Corps Activation: Track the transition to a corps-based structure, focusing on the operational impact of Lt. Gen. Shapovalov’s appointment and potential reductions in micromanagement within the Ground Forces Command.
2. Donbas Sector Pressures (Toretsk and Pokrovsk): Monitor Russian advances towards Toretsk, Kostiantynivka, and surrounding areas, as a breakthrough could destabilise Ukrainian defensive lines in central Donetsk Oblast.
3. Russian Nuclear and Strategic Posture: Observe continued activity at nuclear-related facilities and doctrinal shifts linked to Zapad-2025 preparations, noting strategic aviation movements and missile deployments.
4. Ukrainian Long-Range Strike Campaign: Assess the operational and strategic effects of Ukraine’s drone and missile strikes on Russian airfields, logistics hubs, and defence industry sites, while tracking Russian air defence adaptations.
5. Belarusian Strategic Alignment: Evaluate whether recent diplomatic initiatives and domestic gestures in Belarus signal policy shifts or remain tactical moves within its alignment with Russia.
6. NATO Eastern Flank Force Integration: Scrutinise the integration of new systems (Apache, FA-50, HIMARS variants) into national and NATO command structures, identifying interoperability and sustainment challenges.
7. Hybrid Threat Escalation: Monitor GPS jamming, UAV incursions, and disinformation operations along NATO’s borders as Zapad-2025 approaches.
8. Civil Defence and Infrastructure Resilience: Track dual-use infrastructure rollouts (shelters, logistics nodes, energy resilience) and legal reforms supporting whole-of-society defence models.
9. Integration of Occupied Ukrainian Territories: Observe patterns of displacement, Russification, and infrastructure control in Russian-occupied southern Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk.
10. PMC Residual Activity in Belarus: Monitor reports of Wagner or affiliated instructors in Belarusian special forces training, noting potential
hybrid or grey-zone risks tied to Belarus’s defence posture.

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