Issue No 12 (12) 2025 – 21JUL-29JUL2025

Executive Summary

The reporting period was marked by intensified attritional warfare in eastern Ukraine, heightened hybrid threat activity along NATO’s eastern flank, and a deepening strategic divergence between Kyiv and Moscow. Russia sustained methodical advances on the Donetsk front, particularly around Pokrovsk, while Ukraine intensified its long-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, defence-industrial sites, and infrastructure. Both sides demonstrated adaptability, yet resource asymmetries and political pressures are increasingly shaping operational outcomes.

In Ukraine, defensive resilience was evident across multiple axes, notably in Sumy and Kharkiv, where counterattacks recaptured Kindrativka and Andriivka despite Russian mechanised pushes. In Donetsk, however, Russian forces exploited manpower shortages and reserve redeployments to advance 1–3 km in sectors including Pokrovsk and Toretsk, with Pokrovsk emerging as the focal point of Russian encirclement efforts. Over 1,180 engagements were recorded, with 37 per cent concentrated on the Pokrovsk axis. Ukrainian reforms—most visibly the transition to corps-based command—contributed to halving casualties in some units, yet manpower attrition, anti-corruption protests, and a projected USD 18 billion defence budget shortfall by 2026 underscore systemic fragility. Kyiv’s reliance on drone warfare remains pivotal, with AI-enhanced UAVs increasingly used for precision strikes against Russian rail hubs, air defence systems, and industrial plants.

Russia continued to prosecute an attritional strategy centred on massed artillery, drone saturation, and incremental territorial control. Notably, over 1,030 drones and 80 missiles were launched during the week, with Ukrainian interception rates of 85–95 per cent limiting their effectiveness. Moscow’s focus on the Pokrovsk envelopment reflects its intent to secure the Donbas industrial zone and sever key Ukrainian supply routes, though overextension risks remain. Strategic integration of occupied territories intensified, including coercive Russification, youth militarisation programmes, and engineered humanitarian crises in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, further entrenching Moscow’s hold despite economic pressures.

Belarus maintained a posture of strategic ambiguity while preparing for Zapad-2025. The downing of an unidentified UAV over Minsk near President Lukashenko’s residence highlighted growing concerns about hybrid provocations. Belarusian generals confirmed readiness to host Russian troops, with exercises deliberately shifted away from borders to mitigate escalation. Nevertheless, a steady tempo of UAV and electronic warfare drills points to deeper integration with Russia’s ISR and strike complexes.

NATO’s eastern flank continued to consolidate a forward deterrence posture. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania accelerated defence investments, with particular emphasis on drone warfare, SHORAD systems, and border fortifications. Yet hybrid pressures persisted, including GPS jamming in Estonia, unauthorised drone incursions into Lithuania, and Russian maritime violations in the Baltic. Poland advanced its Tarcza Wschód fortification plan under expedited legislative procedures, while also reintroducing anti-personnel mines as part of its broader deterrence strategy. Romania, meanwhile, deepened cooperation with the United States and France, expanded Black Sea security commitments, and advanced major procurement programmes including Cobra II and Lynx IFVs.

The broader strategic risk environment remains volatile, with several potential escalation triggers identified. These include possible North Korean troop deployments to Ukraine, heightened hybrid activity along the Baltic borders during Zapad-2025, and the risk of unintended NATO–Russia encounters in the Suwałki Gap or Black Sea. While a direct NATO–Russia confrontation remains unlikely in the immediate term, the combination of Russian attritional advances, Ukraine’s growing economic strains, and intensifying hybrid pressures sustains a high-risk trajectory into Q3 2025.