Issue No 13 (13) 2025 – 28JUL – 05AUG2025
Executive Summary
The reporting period of 28JUL–05AUG2025 underscored intensifying attritional dynamics in Ukraine, with Russian forces maintaining steady pressure along multiple axes while Ukraine leveraged asymmetric operations to offset manpower shortages and preserve defensive cohesion. Ukraine intensified its asymmetric campaign, employing long-range UAV strikes against Russian refineries, rail hubs, and defence-industrial targets in Krasnodar Krai, Rostov Oblast, and occupied Crimea. These strikes reduced Russian logistics efficiency by an estimated 15–20 per cent and demonstrated precision targeting capabilities, including the destruction of Su-27 aircraft in Crimea. Domestically, the 3rd Army Corps model has halved casualties in certain sectors, though systemic strains persist due to high desertion rates, mobilisation resistance, and corruption scandals. A JPMorgan Chase analysis places Ukraine on a trajectory resembling the “Georgia” scenario—ongoing instability and waning Western integration—unless decisive Western support alters the course.
Strategically, Ukraine’s sustainability hinges on synchronising corps-level manoeuvre with its drone-centric attritional strategy, while addressing a USD 18 billion budget deficit projected for 2026. Opportunities exist to exploit Russian economic vulnerabilities and secure deeper European defence-industrial integration, though U.S. policy volatility remains a key uncertainty. Russia pursued incremental gains across Donetsk Oblast, particularly around Pokrovsk and Toretsk, using small-unit infiltration, mass drone swarms (up to 1,000 weekly), and motorcycle-borne assaults. Territorial gains of 40–50 square kilometres were recorded in the reporting period, with Pokrovsk emerging as the central axis for potential envelopment. Despite sustaining heavy casualties—often 7–10 times higher than Ukraine in some sectors—Moscow’s ability to generate manpower through coercion and external support (notably from China, Iran, and North Korea) sustains operational tempo. Parallel Russification measures, including passportisation and youth indoctrination in occupied territories, continue, while the Russian economy faces mounting
pressure from inflation above 10 per cent and looming secondary sanctions in September that could reduce oil revenues by up to 50 per cent.
Belarus deepened its integration with Russian operational planning for Zapad-2025, maintaining a high tempo of UAV and EW drills. The downing of an armed UAV near Minsk on 29JUL reinforced perceptions of vulnerability and justified expanded airspace militarisation. Preparations for Zapad-2025, officially framed as defensive and moved away from NATO borders, nevertheless suggest substantial Russian coordination, with risks of spillover incidents into Baltic airspace. NATO frontline states accelerated force modernisation and civil-military resilience. Estonia strengthened anti-drone measures amid GPS jamming and maritime incursions; Latvia advanced major exercises and drone-sector leadership; Lithuania allocated EUR 300 million to anti-drone modernisation following further Belarusian incursions; Poland expedited the Tarcza Wschód fortification programme alongside a new National Security Strategy; and Romania reinforced Black Sea defences with Cobra II and Lynx IFV acquisitions. The region’s defence spending trajectory of 4–6 per cent of GDP through 2028 highlights a long-term commitment
to deterrence.
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