Executive Summary

Ukraine has demonstrated significant operational innovation and resilience. Its forces conducted deep-reaching drone strikes against critical Russian air bases, reportedly damaging dozens of strategic aircraft. Across multiple fronts—Sumy, Kharkiv, Donbas, and Zaporizhzhia—Ukrainian troops have mounted effective defensive operations and counterattacks, leveraging unmanned aerial systems and Western-supplied weaponry to disrupt Russian advances and logistics. Despite harsh attritional fighting, Ukraine maintains control over key territories, though Russia’s planned summer offensive, particularly in Donetsk, poses a serious threat. Humanitarian conditions deteriorate as Russian missile and drone strikes target civilian infrastructure, causing casualties, widespread blackouts, and stressing nuclear power facilities, notably the Zaporizhzhia plant. Ukraine remains heavily reliant on international financial and military aid, underscoring vulnerabilities amid ongoing conflict.

Diplomatic progress remains limited. Peace talks held in Istanbul resulted only in prisoner exchanges, with Russia unwilling to engage on broader peace terms. Meanwhile, Western allies—including the UK, France, and the US—have eased restrictions on Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, expanding Kyiv’s operational freedom but risking further escalation.

Russia continues to pursue military modernisation and strategic adaptation despite setbacks and economic strain. Its forces wage a grinding offensive focused on the Donbas region, making incremental territorial gains at high human and material cost. Tactical adjustments include expanding drone capabilities and employing FPV drones to extend operational reach. However, Russian advances are constrained by strong Ukrainian defences, logistical challenges, and significant attrition. Domestically, Russia faces serious recruitment and demographic challenges, coupled with increased societal militarisation efforts aimed at sustaining future force generation. Its strategic alignment with China deepens, as demonstrated by joint military exercises and growing cooperation, raising the prospect of multi-theatre competition involving the Pacific region.

Meanwhile, Belarus has scaled down the planned Zapad-2025 exercise, officially to reduce regional tensions, while continuing smaller-scale training activities. The Belarusian Armed Forces received new Mi-35M helicopters, upgraded communications systems, and modernised armoured vehicles, preparing for missile deployments expected later this year. Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin highlighted de-escalation intentions at the CSTO meeting, though unconfirmed reports suggest Russia’s troop constraints in Ukraine influenced the decision.

Looking ahead, the situation is likely to remain volatile and attritional. Ukraine’s growing tactical capabilities and international support counterbalance Russian persistence but do not yet suggest a decisive shift. Diplomatic stalemates and humanitarian challenges persist, while the broader regional security environment faces risks of escalation. Sustained Western assistance to Ukraine and careful management of escalation dynamics will be pivotal in shaping the conflict’s trajectory through the remainder of 2025.

Regional overview

During 28MAY-03JUN2025, Eastern Europe remains engulfed in an intense and evolving security crisis centred on the ongoing war in Ukraine. The military dynamics across the region are characterised by Ukraine’s increasingly sophisticated drone warfare, Russia’s grinding but costly offensives, and important changes affecting nearby countries and NATO’s forces in Eastern Europe.

Ukraine has demonstrated a notable escalation in offensive capabilities, exemplified by the 01JUN drone strikes that reportedly damaged 40 Russian strategic aircraft deep inside Russian territory, marking the longest-range strike yet in the conflict. Ukrainian forces are sustaining strong defensive lines across key operational zones: resisting Russian pressure in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, while conducting counterattacks in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. The concentrated Russian summer offensive preparations, particularly targeting Donetsk, risk reshaping the battlefield, yet Ukrainian resistance and drone-enabled disruption continue to slow Russian advances. Meanwhile, Russia’s persistent missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure—including power grids and nuclear facilities like Zaporizhzhia—have exacerbated civilian hardships, with blackouts, evacuations, and damage to essential services deepening the humanitarian crisis.

Diplomatic efforts remain deadlocked. The Istanbul talks on 2 June yielded only prisoner exchanges, with Russia refusing to specify peace conditions. Concurrently, Western nations, including the UK, France, and the US, have lifted operational restrictions on Ukrainian strikes inside Russia since late May, signalling a tactical shift that expands Kyiv’s strategic options but elevates risks of escalation.

Russia faces multiple operational and strategic challenges. Its military campaign in Ukraine continues as a costly, attritional grind marked by incremental territorial gains, primarily in the Donbas, but constrained by Ukrainian defensive lines like the newly constructed 350-kilometre New Donbas Line. Russian tactical innovation includes expanded deployment of FPV drones with extended ranges, disrupting Ukrainian logistics but failing to produce decisive breakthroughs. Manpower shortages have forced reliance on foreign recruits and prisoner conscripts, while domestic militarisation policies—such as drone warfare training for youth and veteran integration programs—aim to sustain the war effort despite demographic decline and elevated desertion rates. Strategically, Russia is deepening military cooperation with China, with joint exercises signalling preparation for potential multi-theatre competition, while logistical setbacks in Africa have prompted adjustments to its global posture.

The Belarusian government publicly signalled de-escalation intentions by announcing a reduction in the scale of the upcoming Zapad-2025 joint military exercise with Russia. Official statements attributed this downsizing to a desire to ease regional anxieties and maintain stability. However, behind this gesture lies a complex reality: unconfirmed reports suggest that Russia’s ongoing military commitments in Ukraine have limited its capacity to contribute significant forces to the exercise, thereby constraining its original scale. Nevertheless, Belarus is compensating for the reduction in Zapad by conducting focused company-level training, particularly in the Grodno region, maintaining a baseline of operational readiness.

NATO’s Eastern Flank continues to bolster defence postures amid heightened threats. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania maintain increased readiness, conducting joint exercises and investing in critical infrastructure. Their collective efforts focus on deterring further Russian aggression and sustaining support for Ukraine, underpinning NATO’s strategic posture in a highly contested region.

In sum, the region is marked by a complex interplay of military escalation, strategic adaptation, and political stalemate. Ukraine’s expanding drone warfare capabilities and Western support contrast with Russia’s attritional operations and geopolitical manoeuvres, while Belarus and NATO states remain pivotal actors shaping the conflict’s trajectory. Continued international backing for Ukraine and calibrated efforts to manage escalation risks will be decisive for regional stability throughout 2025.

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