Issue No 8 (8) 2025 – 11JUN-17JUN2025

Executive Summary

Russian forces continue to maintain offensive pressure across multiple axes, achieving incremental territorial gains north of Kupiansk and along the Pokrovsk and
Severodonetsk-Siversk sectors. The consolidation of Russian positions on the right bank of the Oskil River—particularly around Dvorichna—suggests preparation
for broader offensive actions. Simultaneously, the increasing encirclement effort around Pokrovsk highlights the possibility of a renewed operational focus on this
node. Ukrainian forces, under strain from these advances, are also contending with intensified Russian UAV and missile strikes targeting critical infrastructure and
urban centres, including the deployment of previously unreported jet-powered loitering munitions over Kyiv.
Ukrainian deep strike capabilities continue to evolve, with a notable increase in precision UAV and missile attacks on high-value Russian defence-industrial targets,
including the Raduga missile design bureau and Rezonit electronics plant. These strikes have forced Russia to redeploy strategic assets such as Tu-160 bombers to
the Far East, reflecting growing concerns about the survivability of its airbase infrastructure. In parallel, Ukraine has received critical support from international
partners, including Norway’s confirmation of 14 F-16 fighter transfers—more than doubling its initial pledge—and additional armoured vehicles from the UK.
On the strategic level, Russian military adaptation remains shaped by its preference for manpower-heavy operations, with significant losses sustained during recent
fighting. Updated open-source assessments place confirmed Russian fatalities at over 113,000, with total losses—including wounded—likely several times higher.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian efforts to recover its war dead led to the repatriation of over 1,200 bodies this week, underscoring the intensity and attrition-driven nature
of ongoing combat.
Meanwhile, NATO allies along the Eastern Flank have intensified their defence posturing. Romania hosted over 5,000 NATO and partner troops during Exercise
Saber Guardian 25, part of the broader Defender 25 series, with operations including tactical marches and river crossings. Politically, Romanian President Nicușor
Dan reaffirmed a professionalised force structure and dismissed conscription as a viable option. In Poland, the Tarcza Wschód deterrence initiative advanced,
including plans for fortified defence infrastructure and expanded air and missile defence systems. Across the Baltics, defence ministers emphasised multi-domain
coordination, with Lithuania enhancing drone procurement and Estonia focusing on NATO integration of territorial defence units. These developments reflect a
broader shift toward long-term deterrence and resilience-building along NATO’s eastern frontiers.

Key Watchpoints
• Kupiansk axis: Russia’s consolidation around Dvorichna may signal preparations for a larger-scale offensive aimed at deepening the salient or crossing the
Oskil River.
• Pokrovsk encirclement: Expanded activity on the western flanks of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd could indicate the city’s growing operational significance.
• Emergence of jet-powered kamikaze UAVs: The appearance of novel Russian loitering munitions over Kyiv suggests potential shifts in Russia’s UAV
production or foreign assistance; further identification and analysis are required.
• F-16 integration timeline: Norway’s expanded pledge of 14 fighters increases the urgency of assessing Ukraine’s pilot readiness, basing infrastructure, and
combat integration schedule.
• Russian strategic bomber posture: The eastward redeployment of Tu-160s points to long-term Russian planning for strategic asset survivability amid
growing vulnerability of western airbases.
• Sanctions evasion via North Korea and China: Continued documentation of Western-made components in North Korean missiles delivered to Russia will
likely provoke new scrutiny of dual-use export controls and intermediary trading routes.
• Eastern Flank force posture: Progress of Saber Guardian and Tarcza Wschód will serve as indicators of NATO’s deterrence evolution; continued
infrastructure and ISR build-up in Romania and Poland is key.
• Baltic resilience: Estonia’s territorial defence integration, Lithuania’s drone procurement expansion, and Latvia’s defence budget trajectory warrant
monitoring for signs of sustained capability development.

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