Patterns of Pressure – Hybrid Campaigns on NATO’s Eastern Flank

This report examines how Russian- and Belarusian-aligned hybrid activity is being conducted as a persistent, structured campaign across NATO’s Eastern Flank, rather than as a series of isolated incidents. Using Latvia as a detailed case study, it identifies transferable patterns of pressure that are increasingly characteristic of the wider regional security environment.

The analysis is grounded primarily in the Latvian State Security Service’s 2025 annual threat assessment, combined with Rochan Consulting’s ongoing monitoring of hybrid, military, and political developments across Eastern Europe.

Key themes covered include:

  • The emergence of hybrid activity as a standing condition, characterised by endurance, deniability, and cumulative effect rather than episodic escalation.

  • The growing integration of reconnaissance, sabotage preparation, and low-level deniable actions targeting rail transport, energy, telecommunications, and other infrastructure critical to NATO reinforcement.

  • The use of low-end psychological operations, where simple street-level actions are amplified online to create the appearance of social division and momentum.

  • The role of criminal intermediaries and financially motivated proxies as a core feature of contemporary hybrid tradecraft.

  • The functioning of influence ecosystems and “compatriot” structures that provide narrative cover and long-term societal penetration.

  • Belarus as a parallel and complementary pressure vector, amplifying regional instability through intelligence activity, disinformation, and the instrumentalisation of irregular migration—often aligned with major military exercises.

Beyond Latvia, the report demonstrates how these dynamics translate directly to other Eastern Flank states, particularly Poland and Lithuania, where similar vulnerabilities, infrastructure dependencies, and reinforcement roles exist. The Latvian case is treated not as an outlier, but as an early-warning reference point for understanding broader regional trends.

The study concludes with implications for NATO and an outlook for 2026, highlighting the need to interpret hybrid threats through patterns over time rather than individual incidents, and to integrate civilian infrastructure, legal readiness, and societal resilience more fully into deterrence and defence planning.

Please click here to access the report.