Executive Summary

Ukraine continued corps-level force development with the formation of the 21st Army Corps and new mechanised brigades, yet manpower shortages and command-and-control issues limit operational cohesion. Tactical actions around Sumy, Donetsk, and Kharkiv fronts reflected persistent defensive resilience supported by the expanding “Drone Wall” system.

Russian forces pressed gradual advances near Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Kupyansk, employing layered infantry tactics and drone reconnaissance, though Ukrainian counterattacks and drone operations slowed momentum. Urban combat around Toretsk remained intense with no decisive breakthroughs.

Russia sustains military production with external supplies from China, Iran, and North Korea, yet high casualties and logistical challenges persist. Military build-up near Finland signals reorientation toward Arctic and NATO border threats post-Ukraine conflict.

Belarus continues deepening military integration with Russia ahead of Zapad-2025 exercises, emphasizing joint training and cooperation on missile systems, while maintaining a focus on conscript training and territorial defence readiness; meanwhile, EU sanctions target Belarusian military vehicle suppliers, and personnel changes signal ongoing leadership adjustments within Belarusian forces.

Estonia faced ongoing Russian maritime and hybrid threats, including tanker detentions exposing naval gaps. The Siil 2025 exercise tested rapid mobilisation and NATO interoperability, integrating Ukrainian battlefield management and drone experience. Estonia plans public warning system improvements.

Latvia aims to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2026. Multinational exercises and mobilisation preparations continued. Latvia’s military intelligence warned of Russian sabotage groups.

Lithuania completed major exercises demonstrating NATO interoperability and rapid deployment. It is investing EUR1.1 billion in counter-mobility defences and calls for expanded Baltic Sea maritime security. Procurement highlights include SPIKE LR2 missiles and NASAMS air defence.

Poland launched the Polish Sea programme to boost maritime security and port infrastructure. Brave Boar’25 exercise showcased multinational combat readiness. Procurement advances include helicopter pilot training systems, Abrams tank support, new reconnaissance satellites, and large-scale loitering munitions. Poland expanded missile production via a joint venture with Hanwha Aerospace.

Romania reinforced its NATO commitment amid disinformation campaigns. The Dacian Spring 2025 exercise involved 4,000 troops from ten nations. Newly elected President Nicușor Dan emphasised NATO’s role, increased defence spending, and US military presence. His pro-European agenda supports regional cooperation and Ukraine aid. Romania invests nearly USD1 billion in Otokar Cobra II armoured vehicles with domestic production.

Regional overview

The security environment across Eastern Europe and the Baltic states remains fraught with tension, shaped primarily by the ongoing war in Ukraine and Russia’s assertive military posture. The region continues to grapple with a delicate balance between enduring conflict and the urgent efforts by NATO and its partners to strengthen defence and deterrence.

In Ukraine, the fight for territorial integrity and sovereignty persists with high intensity. Kyiv’s strategic ambitions, encapsulated in its Victory Plan, aim not only to secure battlefield gains but also to accelerate integration with Western structures such as NATO. However, the realities of dwindling US support, logistical challenges, and persistent manpower shortages temper expectations. Despite this, Ukrainian forces have demonstrated remarkable innovation, particularly through their deployment of the so-called “Drone Wall.” This unprecedented use of massed, AI-enabled drones creates a lethal, adaptive defence system that disrupts Russian logistics and limits enemy advances. Ukrainian strikes on Russian supply hubs, including those deep in Crimea, reveal a strategic shift toward targeting the enemy’s capacity to sustain operations rather than merely seeking territorial control. Yet, Russia’s continued attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid and nuclear facilities, such as the Zaporizhzhia plant, underscore the ongoing humanitarian and environmental risks that compound the conflict’s devastation.

On the other side, Russia remains determined to wear down Ukrainian resistance through a war of attrition. Moscow’s campaign, while suffering from heavy casualties and logistical bottlenecks, shows no sign of abating. Tactical adjustments—including the use of motorcycle assault units and electronic warfare—highlight a degree of operational flexibility, yet Ukrainian drone superiority and challenging spring terrain continue to blunt Russian momentum. Notably, Russia’s military focus is not confined to Ukraine; expanding deployments along the Finnish border signal an anticipation of broader confrontations, particularly in the Arctic. Economically, Russia leans heavily on domestic arms production and external support from China,Iran, and North Korea to sustain its war effort, although structural economic weaknesses and labour shortages cast a shadow over its long-term capacity.

Meanwhile, Belarus remains firmly in Russia’s strategic orbit. Preparations for the forthcoming Zapad-2025 exercises underscore Belarus’s role as a key partner in the Union State’s military integration. Despite a lull in large-scale drills, Belarusian forces maintain a focus on conscript training and specialised combat readiness. Leadership transitions reflect ongoing adjustments within the military command structure. EU sanctions targeting Belarusian military vehicle manufacturers further isolate Minsk internationally while Belarus continues to provide logistical support to Russian military operations. Russian troop presence in Belarus remains stable, punctuated by occasional UAV incursions.

In response, the Baltic states and Poland have markedly stepped up their defence postures. Estonia, grappling with direct Russian maritime provocations such as the detention of tankers linked to Moscow’s shadow fleet, recently conducted Siil 2025—the largest mobilisation exercise in its history. This event not only tested rapid force deployment and NATO interoperability but also integrated Ukraine’s combat-tested battlefield management and drone warfare expertise, signalling a clear shift toward multi-domain, networked defence paradigms. Meanwhile, Estonia seeks to remedy identified civil defence vulnerabilities exposed by public warning system tests.

Latvia, embracing a robust defence funding trajectory, plans to raise spending to five percent of GDP by 2026, combining fiscal reforms and EU support. Its military intelligence has increased public vigilance against covert Russian sabotage threats. Latvia’s defence industrial base is evolving, evidenced by the procurement of modern infantry fighting vehicles and the launch of an indigenous drone manufacturer advancing AI-enabled autonomous targeting technologies.

Similarly, Lithuania has bolstered its national defence readiness through exercises like Iron Wolf 2025-I and Swift Response 2025, reinforcing rapid deployment capabilities and allied coordination. It invests heavily in counter-mobility defences, committing over EUR1 billion to engineering obstacles as part of the Baltic Defense Line. Lithuania is also vocal about expanding maritime security missions to address Russian shadow fleet activity in the Poland complements these efforts with its ambitious Polish Sea programme aimed at enhancing maritime security and port infrastructure, crucial for regional resilience. The recent Brave Boar’25 exercise demonstrated effective multinational combat integration. Poland’s growing defence industrial capacity is evident in its pilot training modernisation, domestic maintenance of Abrams tanks, acquisition of cutting-edge reconnaissance satellites, and substantial investment in loitering munitions and missile production—signalling a maturing autonomous defence capability.

Further south, Romania sustains its role as a reliable NATO ally amid disinformation campaigns attempting to undermine allied presence. The multinational Dacian Spring 2025 exercise reinforced Romania’s commitment to collective defence. The election of President Nicușor Dan brought renewed political stability and reaffirmed a pro-NATO and pro-European orientation. Dan’s administration pledges increased defence spending, continued US military cooperation, and deeper integration within the European Union. His vision includes regional cooperation, particularly with Moldova, and sustained support for Ukraine balanced against domestic economic priorities. Romania’s defence modernisation continues apace with a near USD1 billion investment in Otokar Cobra II armoured vehicles, supporting domestic industry involvement.

Meanwhile, Belarus remains firmly in Russia’s strategic orbit. Preparations for the forthcoming Zapad-2025 exercises underscore Belarus’s role as a key partner in the Union State’s military integration. Despite a lull in large-scale drills, Belarusian forces maintain a focus on conscript training and specialised combat readiness. Leadership transitions reflect ongoing adjustments within the military command structure. EU sanctions targeting Belarusian military vehicle manufacturers further isolate Minsk internationally while Belarus continues to provide logistical support to Russian military operations. Russian troop presence in Belarus remains stable, punctuated by occasional UAV incursions.

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