Executive Summary

Ukraine’s Military and Strategic Position: Ukraine remains resilient despite resource constraints and intense Russian offensives. President Zelenskyy’s Victory Plan balances immediate defence needs with long-term ambitions for NATO integration and technological innovation, emphasizing diplomatic pragmatism and economic adaptation.

Operational Environment: Fighting continues across multiple fronts, with Russian forces making incremental advances near Toretsk, Kostiantynivka, and Kupyansk, using layered tactics and drone reconnaissance. Ukrainian forces conduct effective counterattacks, disrupt Russian logistics, and intensify strategic strikes deep into Russian territory, particularly targeting drone production and energy infrastructure.

Ukraine’s Defence Modernisation: The Ministry of Defence is expanding naval and drone capabilities, securing aviation fuel supplies, upgrading aircraft with foreign partners (notably Sweden’s Saab), enhancing cybersecurity, and fostering international defence cooperation, aiming to strengthen military resilience and develop Ukraine as a defence technology exporter.

Economic and Diplomatic Challenges: Ukraine faces EU trade quotas and infrastructure damage but is advancing a US-Ukraine minerals deal and diversifying agricultural markets to sustain its war economy and post-war recovery. Coordinated Western sanctions and aid remain critical for Ukraine’s continued resistance and future stability.

Russia’s Strategic Posture: Russia sustains military production with robust industrial output and demographic depth, offsetting sanctions through alternative export markets. The ongoing military campaign seeks to secure key economic zones in eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas industrial area and the Yuzivska gas field, to bolster its war economy and regional influence.

Belarus: Belarus continued to deepen its military cooperation with Russia through procuring Russian equipment and munitions, joint personnel training, and exchanging combat experience. Belarusian territory was also used for a Russo-Ukrainian POW exchange, while its airspace experienced UAV incursions and possible Russian reconnaissance operations targeting Ukraine.

NATO’s Eastern Flank: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania intensify defence readiness through large-scale multinational exercises, increased defence budgets, and advanced weapons procurement, including air defence and missile systems. Romania maintains strong NATO commitments under newly elected President Nicușor Dan, emphasizing regional cooperation, increased spending, and enhanced US military presence.

Strategic Risks and Outlook: The conflict remains a protracted war of attrition with tactical innovation but persistent resource constraints. Continued Western aid and sanctions coordination are essential to prevent escalation and support Ukraine’s long-term strategic goals. The situation in Q2 2025 will be defined by grinding warfare, technological developments, and geopolitical shifts in Eastern Europe.

Regional overview

As of late May 2025, Eastern Europe remains the epicentre of a high-stakes geopolitical contest defined by the ongoing war in Ukraine and its reverberating impacts across the region. The interplay of military dynamics, economic pressures, and political manoeuvring among Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, and NATO’s eastern flank shapes the security environment, with significant implications for regional stability and global power balances.

Ukraine: The Central Battleground

Ukraine remains locked in a protracted conflict with Russia, balancing military resilience with significant resource constraints and diplomatic challenges. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Victory Plan encapsulates Ukraine’s dual-track strategy: immediate defence and long-term state-building anchored in integration with Western security and economic structures.

On the military front, Ukraine is attempting to reinforce defences along multiple axes while expanding advanced drone capabilities, modernising naval and air forces, and strengthening cybersecurity measures. Partnerships with countries like Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom have become crucial in augmenting Ukraine’s technological edge. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) ongoing initiatives—from upgrading aircraft with Saab to hosting hackathons to counter drone threats—reflect a comprehensive approach to modernisation and operational adaptability.

Economically, Ukraine faces a multifaceted challenge. The war has severely damaged critical infrastructure and restricted access to traditional markets. EU-imposed agricultural quotas further complicate economic recovery, prompting diversification into new markets. The landmark US-Ukraine minerals deal signals a strategic effort to integrate Ukraine’s vast resource wealth into Western supply chains, bolstering defence industry development and post-war reconstruction capacity. Sustained Western financial and military aid remains indispensable for Ukraine’s capacity to maintain resistance and preserve its sovereignty.

Russia: Sustained Military Campaign and Strategic Ambitions

Russia’s position is marked by a complex mixture of resilience and vulnerability. Contrary to narratives of imminent collapse, Russia sustains robust military production, benefiting from a substantial demographic pool and industrial base capable of replenishing losses. Reports indicate monthly production of approximately 250-300 tanks and 250,000 artillery shells, underscoring the capacity to maintain prolonged operations despite Western sanctions and battlefield attrition.

The military campaign focuses on securing key economic zones in eastern Ukraine—particularly the Donbas industrial region and the Yuzivska gas field. The Donbas remains historically and economically vital as a source of coal, steel, and heavy industry, with profound symbolic significance for Russia’s broader regional ambitions. However, integrating the war-torn and depopulated Donbas presents significant fiscal and logistical challenges, amplified by damaged infrastructure and sanctions that limit reconstruction potential.

Russia also continues to adapt operationally, employing upgraded drone technology and specialised motorised assault groups to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and isolate defensive positions. Nonetheless, Ukrainian terrain advantages, logistical resilience, and persistent counterattacks have prevented rapid Russian breakthroughs, leading to a grinding attritional conflict.

Belarus: Military Integration and Regional Security Implications

Last week, Belarus took centre stage at the MILEX-2025 military exhibition, using the platform to demonstrate its defence capabilities and signal a commitment to deepening military cooperation, particularly with Russia and other allied nations. Alongside this, Belarus expanded its international military outreach by engaging in bilateral talks with partners from Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East, reflecting a deliberate effort to broaden its defence ties beyond its immediate neighbourhood.

Meanwhile, the Belarusian Armed Forces bolstered their operational capacity with fresh deliveries of Russian-made equipment, including advanced Su-30SM2 fighters, with further reinforcements anticipated in the near future. Training efforts remained focused on preparing new conscripts and smoothly transitioning between seasonal programmes, ensuring readiness and continuity.

Russian military activity within Belarus continued to support strategic initiatives such as prisoner exchanges, while reports of UAV incursions into Belarusian airspace underscored the ongoing security challenges. Importantly, Ukrainian intelligence has confirmed the absence of Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil.

NATO’s Eastern Flank: Reinforced Deterrence and Collective Defence

NATO member states along the alliance’s eastern border—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania—continue to strengthen their military readiness in response to Russian aggression and Belarusian cooperation with Moscow. Large-scale multinational exercises showcase enhanced interoperability and rapid mobilisation capabilities, signalling a robust commitment to collective defence.

These states have significantly increased defence budgets, procured advanced weaponry such as SPIKE LR2 missiles, NASAMS air defence systems, and advanced loitering munitions, and invested in maritime security infrastructure. Poland’s Polish Sea programme and Romania’s Dacian Spring 2025 exercise exemplify efforts to secure vital waterways and strengthen multinational cooperation.

Under President Nicușor Dan, Romania has reaffirmed its NATO commitments, prioritising increased defence spending, regional cooperation, and an expanded US military presence. This leadership focus supports broader alliance cohesion and deterrence strategies amid an increasingly unpredictable security landscape.

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