Tracking Russian deployments near Ukraine – Autumn-Winter 2021-22

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The purpose of this blog post is to provide an up-to-date order of battle data of Russian forces near Ukraine. Due to increased operational security and Russian attempts to hide the movements of their units, this list is unlikely to be exhaustive.

Nevertheless, I still think it is relevant to keep track of what is being moved around.

This post will be regularly updated.

As for the area coverage, I will be looking for everything from the Smolensk Oblast to Krasnodar Krai and Crimea.

First are the units that are permanently deployed near Ukraine.

LAST UPDATE: 20 February 2022.

THIS POST WILL NO LONGER BE UPDATED – Russian forces are moving from concentration areas to staging areas near the border with Ukraine. These forces are also now dispersing. Whereas we can note some military presence in various areas, linking them to specific units is impossible. At least impossible to do in a coherent and structured way.    

20th Combined Arms Army – Western Military District – Voronezh

236th Artillery Brigade – Kolomna

3rd Motorised Rifle Division – Valyuki

  • 252nd Motorised Rifle Regiment – Boguchar – Fully established
  • 752nd Motorised Rifle Regiment – Soloti – Fully established
  • 237th Tank Regiment – Soloti – Fully established
  • 99th SP Artillery Regiment – Boguchar – Fully established
  • 245th Motorised Rifle Regiment – Soloti (established in December 2021 – it can generate one BTG)

144th Motorised Rifle Division – Smolensk

  • 488th Motorised Rifle Regiment – Klintsy – Fully established
  • 856th SP Artillery Regiment – Pochep – Fully established
  • 254th Motorised Rifle Regiment – Klintsy – Tank company and an MR battalion
  • 59th Tank Regiment – Yelnya – Tank battalion, an MRC

8th Combined Arms Army – Southern Military District – Novocherkassk

20th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade Division – Volgograd – (The unit was converted into a division in December 2021)

238th Artillery Brigade – Korenovsk – Fully established

150th Motorised Rifle Division – Persianovskiy – Elements of the division have been moved to an area near Millerovo;

  • 102nd Motorised Rifle Regiment – Persianovskiy – Fully established
  • 103rd Motorised Rifle Regiment – Rostov-on-Don – Fully established
  • 68th Tank Regiment – Persianovskiy – Fully established
  • 163rd Tank Regiment – Persianovskiy – Fully established
  • 381st Artillery Regiment – Rostov-on-Don – Fully established

Crimea

  • 810th Naval Infantry Brigade – Sevastopol – Fully established
  • 126th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade – Perevalne – Fully established
  • 8th Artillery Regiment – Perevalne – Fully established
  • 56th Air Assault Regiment – Feodosia – The base is under construction

New units near Ukraine

Pogonovo – Units below are being moved out, to be confirmed where exactly

  • Three BTGs from the 4th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District;
  • Three BTGs from the 2nd Motor Rifle Division, 1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District;
  • A company/battalion of TOS-1A, 20th NCB Regiment, 1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District;
  • A possible BM-27 Battalion, 288th Artillery Brigade, 1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District;
  • An Iskander battalion from the 112nd Missile Brigade, 1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District;
  • A BUK-M1 battalion from the 49th Air Defence Brigade, 1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District;

Yelnya – Units belonging to the 41st Combined Arms Army – They are now being moved probably near Klintsy

  • Two BTGs from the 74th MRB;
  • Two BTGs from the 35th MRB;
  • Two BTGs from the 55th MRB;
  • A BTG from the 90th Tank Division;
  • An Iskander Battalion from the 119th Missile Brigade;
  • A TOS-1A company and assorted equipment from the 10th NCB Regiment; and
  • One artillery battalion ( 9P140 Uragan) from the 120th Artillery Brigade;

Crimea

  • Two BTGs from 136th Motor Rifle Brigade, 58th Combined Arms Army; (May have been withdrawn)
  • A BTG from the 336th Naval Infantry Brigade, Baltic Sea Fleet;
  • Three BTGs from the 20th Motor Rifle Division;
  • Two BTGs each from the 70th, 71st, 291st Motor Rifle Regiment; 42nd Motor Rifle Regiment, 58th Combined Arms Army; (291st may have been withdrawn)
  • Two BTGs from the 429th, 19th Motor Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army;
  • Probably entire 291st Artillery Brigade, 58th Combined Arms Army;
  • Four BTGs from the 7th Air Assault Division;

Postoyalye Dvory

  • An artillery battalion from the 9th Artillery Regiment, 6th Combined Arms Army (added on 6 February);
  • A BTG from the 138th Motor Rifle Brigade, 6th Combined Arms Army (added on 11 December);
  • A BTG from the 25th Motor Rifle Brigade, 6th Combined Arms Army (added on 14 December);
  • Two BTGs from the 200th Motor Rifle Brigade;
  • Two BTGs from the 26th Tank Regiment, 47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army ?

Rozhny

  • One BTG from the 90th Tank Division (added 30 December);

Klimovo

  • Two BTGs from the 90th Tank Division.

Krasnodar Krai

  • Two BTGs from the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment

Other units seen in various areas in Russia (not included in the BTG count)

  • A battery? of 2S7 Pion SPH – Belgorod area
  • Elements of 34th Motor Rifle Brigade seen on move in Rostov Oblast; This probably indicates the 49th CAA will support the 8th CAA in the Donbas area;
  • Elements of the 79th Heavy Rocket Launcher Brigade – Seen in Kursk

Units from the Eastern Military District

  • Since the first week of January 2022, Russia has been moving its forces from the Eastern Military District to Western Russia and Belarus. The size of this deployment is significant, between 7-10 perhaps as many as 15-20 BTGs. This translates to around 50-70% of the Eastern MD combat potential. From the start we assumed some of these BTGs will land in Belarus, which has indeed happened. Here is the list of activated units and their confirmed destination.
    • 14th Spetsnaz Brigade – ?
    • 45th Special Purpose (Spetsnaz) Brigade
    • A BTG from the 114th Motor Rifle Regiment – ?
    • A BTG from the 394th Motor Rifle Regiment -?
    • 14th Engineering Brigade – ?
    • 54th Command and Control Brigade – Brest (Belarus)
    • A BTG from the 57th Motor Rifle Brigade – ?
    • A BTG from the 36th Motor Rifle Brigade – Brest (Belarus)
    • A BTG from the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade – Rechitsa (Belarus)
    • Two BTGs from the 5th Tank Brigade – Rechitsa (Belarus)
    • A BTG from the 38th Motor Rifle Brigade – Yelsk (Belarus)
    • A BTG from the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade – Mazyr (Belarus)
    • Two BTGs from the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade – Baranovichi (Belarus)
    • A BTG from the 11th Air Assault Brigade – Gomel area?
    • A BTG from the 83rd Air Assault Brigade – ?
    • A BTG from the 69th Covering (border protection) Brigade – Mazyr (Belarus)
    • Elements of the 101st Logistics Brigade – ?
    • Elements of the 165th Artillery Brigade – Rechitsa
    • Elements of the 305th Artillery Brigade – Mazyr area
    • Elements of the 338th Reactive Artillery Brigade – ?
    • Elements of the 200th Artillery Brigade – ?
    • An Iskander battalion from the 107th Missile Brigade – Asipovichy (Belarus)
    • An Iskander battalion from the 103rd Missile Brigade – Asipovichy (Belarus)

Other units in Belarus

  • Su-35s, 23rd Fighter Aviation Regiment – Baranovichi, Belarus
  • 15 Su-25s from the 18th Attack Aviation Regiment – Luninets
  • Probable elements of the 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade – 1 BTG
  • Two VDV BTGs from the 234th Air Assault Regiment, 76th Air Assault Division- ?
  • 124th Tank Battalion, 76th Air Assault Division – ?
  • Probable four VDV BTGs from the 98th Airborne Division – Brest
  • Probable four VDV BTGs from the 106th Guards Airborne Division – Baranovichi?
  • An S-400 battalion (at least 5 TELs) -Luninets
  • An S-400 battalion – Minsk area
  • Two Panstir-S1 battalions – Luninets and Minsk?

Here is the BTG count as of 20 Feb. The Number after ‘+’ shows new additions.

This gives a total of around 98 BTGs excluding DPR and LPR forces.

Tags: Analysis

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