Ukraine Conflict Monitor – Introduction

The Ukraine Conflict Monitor (UCM) provides in-depth and comprehensive coverage of the ongoing war in Ukraine. We initially set up the UCM to fill a gap in high-quality OSINT reporting on Russian military preparations, the movement of troops, the order of battle, and everything that pertained to preparations to attack Ukraine. Indeed, from late November 2021, our baseline scenario was that Russia would invade Ukraine. Throughout the build-up phase, we tracked Russian troop deployments and assessed the probability of an attack.

The UCM provided five updates a week. One of these updates included a weekly summary, which takes a broader perspective on the current state of the war. The remaining four issues provided daily analyses.

From May 2023, we shifted the coverage to include only weekly updates. Although they are posted on this website, we strongly encourage you to subscribe to the service on Substack.

What does each UCM include? We provide a weekly summary of events at key directions (Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Southern Ukraine, Kherson and Crimea), quantify Russian and Ukrainian losses, and track Russian air and missile strikes. Each issue also summarises military developments in Belarus. As far as we know, we are the only publication in Europe, which does that in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

As a subscriber, you will also gain access to a ScribbleMap that depicts the current frontline, locations of Russian fortifications (in Russia and in Ukraine), the order of battle, and many other things.

Within UCM, we also publish satellite imagery analyses of various areas in Belarus. However, our access to satellite data is very weather-contingent. There are weeks when there are no images, but there are also weeks when we publish analyses of several different sites, such as air bases, training ranges, air defence sites, etc.

For information, we rely on social media posts, IMINT, press reports, and our wide range of contributors and analysts closely monitoring the war. I hope you will join us in this project.

All of this is available for USD7.5 a week (per one user), or USD75 per year.

Here is what the UCM includes.

We are always open to any suggestions, so if you think there is something you would like us to cover or change, don’t hesitate to get in touch with us at:

All the best,

Konrad Muzyka