Categories for Analysis

14 Nov 2025 Analysis

Impressions from the field research trip to Ukraine – October 2025

Almost two weeks ago, I returned from another field research trip to Ukraine. Below are some of the key observations. Before getting to them, however, it is worth recalling the main takeaway from my July...

12 May 2025 Analysis

RedHorizon – Introduction

19 Feb 2024 Analysis

Raport VI – Russian Options in the Luhansk Direction (Free access)

31 Oct 2023 Analysis

Northern Fleet Military Digest – Issue 3 – 23 – 29 October 2023 (Free access)

Key takeaways from last week’s developments Military personnel and equipment preparations for the winter training period continued to take place in the Northern Fleet; About 3,000 conscripts would be a...

17 Jul 2023 Analysis

Belarus Security Update – 10 July – 16 July 2023

Let’s start with a quick note. I spent the entire last week in Ukraine with several colleagues. It undoubtedly was the most productive field study trip since we started going to Ukraine in October. We visited t...

09 Jun 2023 Analysis

Ukraine Conflict Monitor: The aftermath of the Nova Kakhovka Dam collapse

The military situation in the Kherson Oblast after the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka Dam 9 June 2023 BLUF: The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam and subsequent Dnipro’s overflows halt Ukrainian...

21 Nov 2022 Analysis

Issue 203, 14-20 November 2022 (Weekly update – Free access)

Please click here to download this issue as a pdf. The file includes a summary of training events in Belarus, which is not available in the text below. Key takeaways There were no substantial frontline...

15 May 2022 Analysis

Issue 80, 9-15 May 2022 (Weekly update and free access)

The Sunday issue of the monitor is replaced by a weekly summary of events and assessments on the conflict's trajectory. General outlook The last week of 9-15MAY did not bring any significant changes on the...

15 Feb 2022 Analysis

Ukraine Conflict Monitor – Introduction

The Ukraine Conflict Monitor (UCM) provides in-depth and comprehensive coverage of the ongoing war in Ukraine. We initially set up the UCM to fill a gap in high-quality OSINT reporting on Russian military...

13 Feb 2022 Analysis

Issue 1, 13 February 2022 (Free access)

Situational report Introduction issue to the Ukraine Conflict Monitor. We are now in the middle of a new stage of Russian troop build-up new Ukraine. This is manifested in two ways. Firstly, elements...

15 Nov 2021 Analysis

Tracking Russian deployments near Ukraine – Autumn-Winter 2021-22

The purpose of this blog post is to provide an up-to-date order of battle data of Russian forces near Ukraine. Due to increased operational security and Russian attempts to hide the movements of their units...

20 Aug 2021 Analysis

Zapad-2021 Strategic-Operational exercise – part 6 (Zapad in IMINT)

As information about unit movements in support of 'Zapad' is scarce, we have launched an initiative, which seeks to present to the public an IMINT perspective on Russian and Belarusian preparations. 'Zapad...

27 Aug 2020 Analysis

IMINT Analysis – Grodno Training Range

In response to the growing threat from NATO and possible interference in Belarusian domestic affairs, the Belarusian Ministry of Defence is conducting a country-wide readiness exercise. For background stories...

25 Aug 2020 Analysis

Mobilisation of the Belarusian Armed Forces

According to Belarusian MoD press releases from recent days, the armed forces are going through an unprecedented period of mobilisation, which seeks to increase the readiness of the armed forces to respond to...

01 Apr 2020 Analysis

Smerch from Kaliningrad

On 29th March the Russian daily newspaper, Izvestia, reported that the Kaliningrad-based 244th Artillery Brigade had been equipped with BM-30 Smerch (Tornado) multiple rocket launcher system...